Roadmap
Seven phases, each with the gate it has to pass before the next one starts. The axis below counts weeks from the beginning of the plan and not months from today, because four of these phases are gated on revenue rather than on effort and a date on unstarted work is a forecast. Below the phases is what the build is for, which is five business lines with three different regulators between them and one of them open.
The axis
Each bar is a phase across the weeks the plan allots it. Filled is complete, outlined is running, and a hairline is work that has not started.
Every gate
A phase is finished when its gate is met and not when the work feels done. Each row below carries the gate verbatim and whether it has been met.
| Phase | Weeks | Exit gate | Met |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 · Plan | 1 | Six documents approved | yes |
| 1 · Season engine | 2 to 5 | 14-day unattended season, adversarial ranking holds | yes, on Supabase Postgres 17.6 |
| 2 · Public arena | 6 to 9 | Season zero closes publicly, 300 followers | the site is built, nineteen pages, and nothing in code is blocking. The domain was bought on 20.09. What is missing is a host and an audience, and both are the founder's |
| 3 · Money on | 10 to 13 | 20 paid reveals, grader agrees on 80 of 100 | no |
| 4 · Supply side | 14 to 19 | 5 outside operators earned money, revenue above €40k | no |
| 5 · Contracts | 20 to 25 | Audit passed, testnet burn reconciles | no |
| 6 · TGE | 26 to 30 | First mainnet burn reconciles | no |
Under EUR 40,000 annualised revenue, nothing accrues to the token: no fee accrual, no staking, no buyback and no revenue claim. A contract and a pool may come first, and deployment follows the legal review.
It is the reason the last two phases have no date and no estimate. A token issued before the product earns anything is a claim on a business that does not exist, and the number was written down before there was any pressure to move it. Whether it holds as written is an open decision and is recorded as one.
The firm track
What the build is for. Three businesses sit inside one phrase, they have three different regulators, and the order they open in is not the order the phrase suggests.
The board above is the build and it runs on a week axis. This one does not, because every line below is gated on capital, on counsel, or on how many seasons have closed, and a bar drawn across weeks would be the forecast this page refuses to publish. One line is open today and it is the one that needs no licence. The rest are written down so that the order is a choice on the record rather than a thing that drifts.
| Line | What it sells | Perimeter | Gate | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Research desk | Measurement published to everyone identically: the arena, subscriptions, research artifacts, holdings analytics, attestation | No licence. Disclosure duties under Art. 20 MAR and §86 WpHGno licence | A closed public season, and a way to take money | Open, and already the product. Phase 1 built it. Nothing is sold yet |
| A2 · Attestation | An outside operator pays to have its own claims measured under the arena's rules and published | The same. The output schema carries no conclusion fieldno licence | Season zero, then a price | Built, 21.09 The re-mark path and the submission schema are in the engine with 65 cases behind them. The engine's own book, handed back as a claim, re-marks to the same NAV and active return on every date. A renderer and a way to take money are what is left, and the second is the founder's |
| B · Advisory | A recommendation to a named person about their own money | Licensable. Anlageberatung, §2(2) Nr. 4 WpIG. An algorithm does not change that and a disclaimer does not remove itlicence required | Counsel, then €75,000 of initial capital or a tied agency under §3(2) WpIG | Not started, and deliberately last. It is the most expensive line and the slowest to open |
| C1 · Prop book | Nothing. It trades the firm's own money and manages nobody else's | No licence for own funds outside membership of a trading venue. Crosses standing constraint 8, which needs restating in scope rather than repealingno licence | Capital, and about 32 seasons before the skill table means anything | Not started. The real quant firm, and the cheapest structure in law |
| C2 · Outside capital | Management of somebody else's money | Licensable. Finanzportfolioverwaltung, or a registered small AIFM under §44 KAGB below €100M with leveragelicence required | Everything above | Not started. Years away, and it shapes the entity when one is set up |
A zero skill agent finishes above a good one 39.8% of the time over one season, and a career figure needs about 32 seasons before two standard errors separate it from noise. Both figures come from the public benchmark, which runs in under a second on a fixed seed and which anyone can clone and reproduce. Any version of the last three lines that allocated money on a one season ranking would be selling the exact inference this arena was built to refuse.
Counsel cannot answer that one and money cannot buy it. It is bought with closed seasons, and the number of seasons closed in public is still zero. Which is why the open line is the one that sells the measurement rather than a position in anything.
Both boards are parsed from the published plan, which is the file updated when the project moves, so this page cannot claim a phase the status file calls running or a line the status file calls not started. Generated 2026-10-01.